Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Brain Drain for United States by States DYI 2010, 2015 ACS



Additional data that enabled reader to perform their own analysis!
After writing the Brain Drain article for Nebraska: Nebraska Brain Drain Migration and Ed. Attainment, 2015 United States ACS, the author realized that all the data used to for writing that article are all made public via the Tableau Public platform except the data derived from the 2006-2010 5 year PUMS. Since the author already have those data processed, there is less a reason to publish it.

The 2006-2010 education attainment and migration data is now published at the Tableau Public platform: Brain Drain Rank and Analysis 2010-06. With this information, reader are free to explore the Brain Drain situation for the states of interest.

Have the ball and have fun.

 

Thursday, March 09, 2017

Nebraska Brain Drain Migration and Ed. Attainment, 2015 United States ACS


Provides detailed information on Nebraska brain drain issues with explanation.
This article is all about what the 2015 ACS data has to say about Brain Drain in Nebraska. If you are more interested in what the 2015 ACS can tell you about the Brain Drain problem in other states, please refer to Brain Drain for United States by States DYI 2010, 2015 ACS  on how to do your own analysis.

Data reported in this analysis is based on the American Community Survey's Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) released by US Census Bureau. The analysis focuses on the working age population ranging from 22 years old to 64 years old.

The analysis will look into few aspects of the brain drain/migration issues in order to provide a comprehensive view of the issue.

When the term brain drain was coined, it concerned about the migration of highly skilled or knowledgeable people out of a region and could cause the economic slowdown or break down of a region. The basic assumption behind this thought is the talent pool or the education attainment of a region is greatly related to the economic advancement of a region. If this assumption is right, the education attainment would be an indicator of the economic situation of a region. 

From Census' ACS data, we can compare current education attainment data for Nebraska to that of the past. Based on the data, we have the following: 
============
Ed. Attainment Level2011-20152006-2010Diff
1. Less Than High School86,19781,3104,887
2. High School Equivalent243,985259,028-15,043
3. Some College256,915254,4662,449
4. Associate Degree116,554105,46311,091
5. Bachelor Degree229,744211,12518,619
6. Graduate Degree96,17286,01810,154
Total1,029,567997,41032,157
============
Ed. Attainment Level2011-20152006-2010Diff
1. Less Than High School8.4%8.2%0.2%
2. High School Equivalent23.7%26.0%-2.3%
3. Some College25.0%25.5%-0.6%
4. Associate Degree11.3%10.6%0.7%
5. Bachelor Degree22.3%21.2%1.1%
6. Graduate Degree9.3%8.6%0.7%

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* For data concerning other states, please visit the article Brain Drain - Ranking and Analysis with 2015 ACS data and follow the 'Brain Drain Rank and Analysis' link to a Tableau Public Site. Once you are there, you can use the second tab: 'Ed. attainment for selected states' to see the data.

As can be seen from the above table, in general, Nebraska has progressed to a better educated state based on the 2011-2015 and the 2006-2010 5-year PUMS. The change accounts for a 32,157 headcount increase for the working age population and a 39,864 headcount increase for the Associate Degree and above population while a -7,707 headcount decrease for the lower degree levels. Percentage wise, the Associate-Degree- and-Above level now accounted for an additional 2.6% (without rounding) of the working age population. Comparing nationally, this put Nebraska at number 6 for the percent increase of the Associate-Degree-and-above level. At the same time, the 43.0% Associate-Degree-and-Above attainment level of 2011-2015 puts Nebraska at number 14 in the nation including the District of Columbia - see table below.
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State2011-20152006-2010Diff
District of Columbia60.5%55.5%5.0%
Minnesota47.4%44.4%3.0%
Iowa41.9%39.0%2.9%
Wisconsin40.7%37.9%2.8%
Tennessee33.3%30.6%2.6%
Nebraska43.0%40.4%2.6%
Maine40.1%37.5%2.5%
Virginia45.1%42.7%2.5%
Missouri36.9%34.5%2.4%
Pennsylvania40.1%37.7%2.4%
Kentucky31.7%29.4%2.3%
West Virginia28.1%25.8%2.3%
Ohio36.6%34.4%2.2%
North Carolina38.6%36.5%2.2%
Wyoming37.1%34.9%2.2%
Arkansas28.9%26.8%2.1%
Colorado46.7%44.6%2.1%
Louisiana28.9%26.8%2.0%
Alabama32.6%30.5%2.0%
Indiana34.4%32.4%1.9%
Michigan37.7%35.8%1.9%
Illinois42.6%40.8%1.9%
New York45.5%43.7%1.8%
New Hampshire46.3%44.6%1.8%
South Dakota40.0%38.2%1.7%
Oklahoma32.6%30.9%1.7%
Delaware38.8%37.1%1.7%
New Jersey45.9%44.2%1.7%
Connecticut47.1%45.4%1.7%
South Carolina35.4%33.7%1.7%
Texas34.5%32.8%1.7%
Washington43.2%41.5%1.7%
Georgia36.7%35.2%1.6%
Mississippi30.4%28.9%1.5%
Maryland45.7%44.2%1.5%
Florida38.0%36.5%1.5%
Oregon39.4%38.1%1.4%
Kansas40.9%39.5%1.4%
Massachusetts51.0%49.7%1.3%
Rhode Island42.2%41.0%1.2%
Utah40.0%38.8%1.2%
Idaho35.2%34.1%1.2%
Hawaii42.1%41.1%1.0%
North Dakota45.3%44.3%1.0%
Vermont45.2%44.2%1.0%
Arizona35.7%34.7%1.0%
Nevada30.1%29.3%0.9%
California38.9%38.1%0.8%
New Mexico33.3%32.7%0.5%
Montana38.1%37.7%0.4%
Alaska35.1%35.0%0.1%


After looking at the current and past education attainment level of Nebraska, it worth to spend time on the migration factors that can affect the education attainment level of Nebraska in the future. The detailed migration numbers for all states in the United States can be accessed through the article 'Population migration derived from ACS 2015 5-year PUMS dataset' and follow the link in the last paragraph.

At the higher level for migration between US states, the net-migration for Nebraska can be summarized in the following table:
=========
Ed. Attainment LevelNet MigrationUpperLower
1. Less Than High School-437368-1,242
2. High School Equivalent5161,826-794
3. Some College-1571,246-1,560
4. Associate Degree-119740-978
5. Bachelor Degree-1,131180-2,442
6. Graduate Degree-1,173-178-2,168
where the 'Net Migration' is the estimated number of people move-in (positive) or move-out (negative) of Nebraska. However, because of the sample size of the 2011-2015 PUMS data, the Net Migration number does not tell the full story. Taking into account the 90% MOE (Margin of Error), we obtain the upper and lower bond for the estimated 'net migration' numbers. In the case of 'Some College' above, even though the net migration number show there were 157 people moved out of Nebraska, taking into account of the upper and lower bond, we can see that there are fair amount of chances, the real net migration can be positive. On the other hand, the number shown for the Graduate Degree level indicated that with 90% confidence/chances, there is definitely people moving out of Nebraska and it is simply a matter of how much. The number can ranging from 178 to 2,168. For the bachelor degree level, the number indicates that, even though we can't say 90% sure that there are people moved out of Nebraska, the number does show that moved out is much more likely that moved in. It simply that we can said it with 90% confidence, but with 84% confidence.

Examine these numbers even more closely with the education attainment in mind, we can see that at Graduate Degree level, for every 100 Graduate Degree residents in Nebraska, about 1.2 ( 1,173 / 96,172 * 100) of them are likely to move out of Nebraska per year. Comparing with other states, for the Graduate Degree level, Nebraska ranked number 4 from the bottom with this measure. You can find other measures and also the net migration numbers for other states in the article: 'Brain Drain - Ranking and Analysis with 2015 ACS data'. To get some idea of where Nebraskans were moving to, you can check out the second tab at the 'Brain Drain Migration between states' presentation. The first tab in the presentation can provide information on from where Nebraska attracted in-migration people. These number can also be obtained in tabular form from the 'here' link in the last paragraph of this article: 'Population migration derived from ACS 2015 5-year PUMS dataset'.

The discussion above, did not mention the possible infusion of foreigner into the Nebraska. The ACS PUMS does provide these numbers. However, if a foreigner moved to other countries, the ACS won't be able to provide any estimates. If, however, these foreigners should move to other states in the United States, they are accounted for in the state to state migration numbers. A quick summary table:
=========
Ed. Attainment LevelIn - USIn - ForeignForeign/US
1. Less Than High School2,00969134.4%
2. High School Equivalent5,60197817.5%
3. Some College6,60178711.9%
4. Associate Degree2,33634514.8%
5. Bachelor Degree7,8931,55019.6%
6. Master Degree2,51343617.3%
7. Professional Degree52510019.0%
8. Doctor's Degree50128957.7%

As the table shown, for every Doctor moved to Nebraska from other state, there are about half a Doctor that moved to Nebraska from foreign countries. In the case of Doctor's Degree, there were 234 people moved to Nebraska from China/Hong Kong/Macau area. In the case of Bachelor Degree, Canada with 255 people moved to Nebraska accounted for the largest fraction followed by Turkey with 149. For the Less Than High School Level, Nepal lead the migration with 171. Again, these number are available in tabular form through 'Population migration derived from ACS 2015 5-year PUMS dataset'.

Wednesday, March 01, 2017

The Practical Economics and Brain Drain



The term, brain drain, however, have been casually used to describe any number of skilled or well trained people migrated out of a region these days without disastrous qualifiers.

Brain Drain, as was originally coined, refers to emigration of skilled people to North America from post-war Europe[1].

Thinking back in history, the post-war Europe is in desperate need for rebuilding and, in a short time, there is no way for the region to reproduce these skilled people if they left. The economic impact is tremandous.


To recap the disastrous, substantial number of people were leaving, these people were on desperate needs, and the region can't reproduce these skilled people in a short time.

The term, brain drain, however, have been casually used to describe any number of skilled or well trained people migrated out of a region these days without those disastrous qualities.

To these days, data analysts would wave their magic wands and there comes the number of highly educated people moving out of a region. The number scared people to fight to keep the very last of these people from moving out thinking of inevitable disaster if not to keep them.

However, if we were to practice the practical economics, questions would have been asked: 
  • If the number of leaving substantial that would disrupt the economy tremendously?
  • If the region is desperate for those highly educated worker?
  • If the region could not produce or attract replacement for these skilled worker?

If answers to the above questions are nos, should we panic?

The fundamental of a well-being society do value highly educated citizens for various reasons. The potential high economic production is one, but also the provision of sensible advises and visions to our democratic political system. These advantages and benefits are valued through the overall number of highly educated population but the small number of the migration ones. The measure of the well-being of a society is, therefore, the education attainment.

As to the economic well-being, the first thing in order is to be able to supply the needed worker of the future through the education system. The second thing in order is to produce these workers as efficient as possible including not over supplying workers in less needed fields. The third thing in order is to have a vision in guiding the region to sustainable and plausible economy. The fourth thing in order is then to foster the innovation and entrepreneurship.

** A scenario:
Keeping an integrated circuit designer in Nebraska is of no great value unless he or she was able to sell himself or herself remotely, via internet or something, to chip design companies, which is remotely likely comparing to just physically closer to chip design companies. On the other hand, if, one day, he or she become so successful and re-emigrate back to Nebraska, he or she may be able to pioneer different kind of circuit design company.
 
[1]Cervantes, Mario; Guellec, Dominique (January 2002). "The brain drain: Old myths, new realities". OECD Observer.