Brain Drain for United States by States DIY 2010, 2015 ACS

Additional data that enabled reader to perform their own analysis!

After writing the Brain Drain article for Nebraska: Nebraska Brain Drain Migration and Ed. Attainment, 2015 United States ACS, the author realized that all the data used to for writing that article are all made public via the Tableau Public platform except the data derived from the 2006-2010 5 year PUMS. Since the author already have those data processed, there is less a reason to publish it.

The 2006-2010 education attainment and migration data is now published at the Tableau Public platform: Brain Drain Rank and Analysis 2010-06. With this information, reader are free to explore the Brain Drain situation for the states of interest.

Have the ball and have fun.

 

Nebraska Brain Drain Migration and Ed. Attainment, 2015 United States ACS

Provides detailed information on Nebraska brain drain issues with explanation.

This article is all about what the 2015 ACS data has to say about Brain Drain in Nebraska. If you are more interested in what the 2015 ACS can tell you about the Brain Drain problem in other states, please refer to Brain Drain for United States by States DYI 2010, 2015 ACS  on how to do your own analysis.

Data reported in this analysis is based on the American Community Survey's Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) released by US Census Bureau. The analysis focuses on the working age population ranging from 22 years old to 64 years old.

The analysis will look into few aspects of the brain drain/migration issues in order to provide a comprehensive view of the issue.

When the term brain drain was coined, it concerned about the migration of highly skilled or knowledgeable people out of a region and could cause the economic slowdown or break down of a region. The basic assumption behind this thought is the talent pool or the education attainment of a region is greatly related to the economic advancement of a region. If this assumption is right, the education attainment would be an indicator of the economic situation of a region. 

From Census' ACS data, we can compare current education attainment data for Nebraska to that of the past. Based on the data, we have the following: 
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Ed. Attainment Level	2011-2015	2006-2010	Diff
1. Less Than High School	86,197	81,310	4,887
2. High School Equivalent	243,985	259,028	-15,043
3. Some College	256,915	254,466	2,449
4. Associate Degree	116,554	105,463	11,091
5. Bachelor Degree	229,744	211,125	18,619
6. Graduate Degree	96,172	86,018	10,154
Total	1,029,567	997,410	32,157

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Ed. Attainment Level	2011-2015	2006-2010	Diff
1. Less Than High School	8.4%	8.2%	0.2%
2. High School Equivalent	23.7%	26.0%	-2.3%
3. Some College	25.0%	25.5%	-0.6%
4. Associate Degree	11.3%	10.6%	0.7%
5. Bachelor Degree	22.3%	21.2%	1.1%
6. Graduate Degree	9.3%	8.6%	0.7%

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* For data concerning other states, please visit the article Brain Drain - Ranking and Analysis with 2015 ACS data and follow the 'Brain Drain Rank and Analysis' link to a Tableau Public Site. Once you are there, you can use the second tab: 'Ed. attainment for selected states' to see the data.

As can be seen from the above table, in general, Nebraska has progressed to a better educated state based on the 2011-2015 and the 2006-2010 5-year PUMS. The change accounts for a 32,157 headcount increase for the working age population and a 39,864 headcount increase for the Associate Degree and above population while a -7,707 headcount decrease for the lower degree levels. Percentage wise, the Associate-Degree- and-Above level now accounted for an additional 2.6% (without rounding) of the working age population. Comparing nationally, this put Nebraska at number 6 for the percent increase of the Associate-Degree-and-above level. At the same time, the 43.0% Associate-Degree-and-Above attainment level of 2011-2015 puts Nebraska at number 14 in the nation including the District of Columbia - see table below.
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State	2011-2015	2006-2010	Diff
District of Columbia	60.5%	55.5%	5.0%
Minnesota	47.4%	44.4%	3.0%
Iowa	41.9%	39.0%	2.9%
Wisconsin	40.7%	37.9%	2.8%
Tennessee	33.3%	30.6%	2.6%
Nebraska	43.0%	40.4%	2.6%
Maine	40.1%	37.5%	2.5%
Virginia	45.1%	42.7%	2.5%
Missouri	36.9%	34.5%	2.4%
Pennsylvania	40.1%	37.7%	2.4%
Kentucky	31.7%	29.4%	2.3%
West Virginia	28.1%	25.8%	2.3%
Ohio	36.6%	34.4%	2.2%
North Carolina	38.6%	36.5%	2.2%
Wyoming	37.1%	34.9%	2.2%
Arkansas	28.9%	26.8%	2.1%
Colorado	46.7%	44.6%	2.1%
Louisiana	28.9%	26.8%	2.0%
Alabama	32.6%	30.5%	2.0%
Indiana	34.4%	32.4%	1.9%
Michigan	37.7%	35.8%	1.9%
Illinois	42.6%	40.8%	1.9%
New York	45.5%	43.7%	1.8%
New Hampshire	46.3%	44.6%	1.8%
South Dakota	40.0%	38.2%	1.7%
Oklahoma	32.6%	30.9%	1.7%
Delaware	38.8%	37.1%	1.7%
New Jersey	45.9%	44.2%	1.7%
Connecticut	47.1%	45.4%	1.7%
South Carolina	35.4%	33.7%	1.7%
Texas	34.5%	32.8%	1.7%
Washington	43.2%	41.5%	1.7%
Georgia	36.7%	35.2%	1.6%
Mississippi	30.4%	28.9%	1.5%
Maryland	45.7%	44.2%	1.5%
Florida	38.0%	36.5%	1.5%
Oregon	39.4%	38.1%	1.4%
Kansas	40.9%	39.5%	1.4%
Massachusetts	51.0%	49.7%	1.3%
Rhode Island	42.2%	41.0%	1.2%
Utah	40.0%	38.8%	1.2%
Idaho	35.2%	34.1%	1.2%
Hawaii	42.1%	41.1%	1.0%
North Dakota	45.3%	44.3%	1.0%
Vermont	45.2%	44.2%	1.0%
Arizona	35.7%	34.7%	1.0%
Nevada	30.1%	29.3%	0.9%
California	38.9%	38.1%	0.8%
New Mexico	33.3%	32.7%	0.5%
Montana	38.1%	37.7%	0.4%
Alaska	35.1%	35.0%	0.1%

After looking at the current and past education attainment level of Nebraska, it worth to spend time on the migration factors that can affect the education attainment level of Nebraska in the future. The detailed migration numbers for all states in the United States can be accessed through the article 'Population migration derived from ACS 2015 5-year PUMS dataset' and follow the link in the last paragraph.

At the higher level for migration between US states, the net-migration for Nebraska can be summarized in the following table:
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Ed. Attainment Level	Net Migration	Upper	Lower
1. Less Than High School	-437	368	-1,242
2. High School Equivalent	516	1,826	-794
3. Some College	-157	1,246	-1,560
4. Associate Degree	-119	740	-978
5. Bachelor Degree	-1,131	180	-2,442
6. Graduate Degree	-1,173	-178	-2,168

where the 'Net Migration' is the estimated number of people move-in (positive) or move-out (negative) of Nebraska. However, because of the sample size of the 2011-2015 PUMS data, the Net Migration number does not tell the full story. Taking into account the 90% MOE (Margin of Error), we obtain the upper and lower bond for the estimated 'net migration' numbers. In the case of 'Some College' above, even though the net migration number show there were 157 people moved out of Nebraska, taking into account of the upper and lower bond, we can see that there are fair amount of chances, the real net migration can be positive. On the other hand, the number shown for the Graduate Degree level indicated that with 90% confidence/chances, there is definitely people moving out of Nebraska and it is simply a matter of how much. The number can ranging from 178 to 2,168. For the bachelor degree level, the number indicates that, even though we can't say 90% sure that there are people moved out of Nebraska, the number does show that moved out is much more likely that moved in. It simply that we can said it with 90% confidence, but with 84% confidence.

Examine these numbers even more closely with the education attainment in mind, we can see that at Graduate Degree level, for every 100 Graduate Degree residents in Nebraska, about 1.2 ( 1,173 / 96,172 * 100) of them are likely to move out of Nebraska per year. Comparing with other states, for the Graduate Degree level, Nebraska ranked number 4 from the bottom with this measure. You can find other measures and also the net migration numbers for other states in the article: 'Brain Drain - Ranking and Analysis with 2015 ACS data'. To get some idea of where Nebraskans were moving to, you can check out the second tab at the 'Brain Drain Migration between states' presentation. The first tab in the presentation can provide information on from where Nebraska attracted in-migration people. These number can also be obtained in tabular form from the 'here' link in the last paragraph of this article: 'Population migration derived from ACS 2015 5-year PUMS dataset'.

The discussion above, did not mention the possible infusion of foreigner into the Nebraska. The ACS PUMS does provide these numbers. However, if a foreigner moved to other countries, the ACS won't be able to provide any estimates. If, however, these foreigners should move to other states in the United States, they are accounted for in the state to state migration numbers. A quick summary table:
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Ed. Attainment Level	In - US	In - Foreign	Foreign/US
1. Less Than High School	2,009	691	34.4%
2. High School Equivalent	5,601	978	17.5%
3. Some College	6,601	787	11.9%
4. Associate Degree	2,336	345	14.8%
5. Bachelor Degree	7,893	1,550	19.6%
6. Master Degree	2,513	436	17.3%
7. Professional Degree	525	100	19.0%
8. Doctor's Degree	501	289	57.7%

As the table shown, for every Doctor moved to Nebraska from other state, there are about half a Doctor that moved to Nebraska from foreign countries. In the case of Doctor's Degree, there were 234 people moved to Nebraska from China/Hong Kong/Macau area. In the case of Bachelor Degree, Canada with 255 people moved to Nebraska accounted for the largest fraction followed by Turkey with 149. For the Less Than High School Level, Nepal lead the migration with 171. Again, these number are available in tabular form through 'Population migration derived from ACS 2015 5-year PUMS dataset'.

Related ACS Migration Data for other years:
Education Attainment of Nebraska's Working Age Population via 2011-07 ACS PUMS
Migration of Nebraska Working Age Population via 2011-07 ACS PUMS

The Practical Economics and Brain Drain

The term, brain drain, however, have been casually used to describe any number of skilled or well trained people migrated out of a region these days without disastrous qualifiers.

Brain Drain, as was originally coined, refers to emigration of skilled people to North America from post-war Europe^[1].

Thinking back in history, the post-war Europe is in desperate need for rebuilding and, in a short time, there is no way for the region to reproduce these skilled people if they left. The economic impact is tremandous.


To recap the disastrous, substantial number of people were leaving, these people were on desperate needs, and the region can't reproduce these skilled people in a short time.

The term, brain drain, however, have been casually used to describe any number of skilled or well trained people migrated out of a region these days without those disastrous qualities.

To these days, data analysts would wave their magic wands and there comes the number of highly educated people moving out of a region. The number scared people to fight to keep the very last of these people from moving out thinking of inevitable disaster if not to keep them.

However, if we were to practice the practical economics, questions would have been asked: 

• If the number of leaving substantial that would disrupt the economy tremendously?
• If the region is desperate for those highly educated worker?
• If the region could not produce or attract replacement for these skilled worker?

If answers to the above questions are nos, should we panic?

The fundamental of a well-being society do value highly educated citizens for various reasons. The potential high economic production is one, but also the provision of sensible advises and visions to our democratic political system. These advantages and benefits are valued through the overall number of highly educated population but the small number of the migration ones. The measure of the well-being of a society is, therefore, the education attainment.

As to the economic well-being, the first thing in order is to be able to supply the needed worker of the future through the education system. The second thing in order is to produce these workers as efficient as possible including not over supplying workers in less needed fields. The third thing in order is to have a vision in guiding the region to sustainable and plausible economy. The fourth thing in order is then to foster the innovation and entrepreneurship.

** A scenario:
Keeping an integrated circuit designer in Nebraska is of no great value unless he or she was able to sell himself or herself remotely, via internet or something, to chip design companies, which is remotely likely comparing to just physically closer to chip design companies. On the other hand, if, one day, he or she become so successful and re-emigrate back to Nebraska, he or she may be able to pioneer different kind of circuit design company.
 
^[1]Cervantes, Mario; Guellec, Dominique (January 2002). "The brain drain: Old myths, new realities". OECD Observer.